Maybe they are wrong about this — but they probably aren’t.
With the drop-off in vaccination rates for both children and adults, many experts are predicting that the next seven to nine months could bring an epidemic of illness. By May or June of 2026, we may be looking back at a devastating public health nightmare. I hope not, but we’ll see.
Vaccines aren’t perfect, and as with any medical treatment, there can be side effects. But overwhelmingly, vaccines are safe and effective. That’s why smallpox, polio, tetanus, rabies, and a host of other diseases no longer plague humanity.
A recent article in the Annals of Internal Medicine (September 30, 2025), titled “Déjà Flu All Over Again: The Risk for Overwhelm of the U.S. Health Care System by Vaccine-Preventable and Modifiable Diseases,” warns that “a storm is brewing” as the nation’s public health infrastructure continues to erode. The authors note that the U.S. health care system is “ill prepared” for the coming challenges due to weakened public health institutions, reduced data transparency, and the nation’s withdrawal from the World Health Organization.
The article highlights how the dismantling of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) data-reporting processes has impaired early warning systems that once detected emerging influenza strains and other pandemic threats. Combined with widespread misinformation and declining confidence in vaccines, along with shrinking hospital capacity and staffing shortages, the outlook is grim. Currently, 760 hospitals—about one-third of all rural hospitals—are at risk of closure, with more than 300 in immediate danger.
The authors also remind us of the extraordinary global impact of vaccination: since 1974, immunizations have saved approximately 154 million lives, and continued efforts are projected to save another 50 million in this decade alone. Yet public uncertainty and mistrust in science have drowned out these achievements. Influenza alone continues to cause between 47 million and 87 million illnesses, 21 million to 37 million medical visits, 610,000 to 1.3 million hospitalizations, and 27,000 to 130,000 deaths annually in the United States.
Even imperfect vaccines remain powerful tools that prevent disease and save lives. However, misinformation and mistrust have eroded confidence and reduced vaccine uptake — with real-world consequences. The CDC reported that symptomatic influenza cases rose 29%, from 31 million in 2022–2023 to 40 million in 2023–2024, with 18 million medical visits last season alone. As the Annals article concludes, “Our healthcare system is teetering on the edge and cannot afford additional stress—especially from vaccine-preventable and attenuating diseases.”
We will know soon enough the consequences of these policy changes. Let’s hope they are not as dire as predicted.
Dan Morhaim, M.D.
Author, Preparing for a Better End
www.thebetterend.com
