Biden’s 5 failures in Ukraine that only embolden Russia

President Joe Biden’s Russia-Ukraine policy has been a monumental disaster. Russia’s forces are in the fifth month of laying devastation to Ukraine as Biden continues to write checks to Zelenskyy, with no end in sight. 

Here are Biden’s top five failures in Ukraine, which could have devastating long-term consequences for our country, not to mention Ukraine.

First, not only has the Biden administration failed to deter Putin, its actions gave Russian forces a head-start, before launching their assault on Ukraine. Putin was able to mobilize a battle-ready force of 190,000 troops who almost encircled Ukraine. This occurred over the course of weeks and months, while U.S. diplomats naively negotiated with the Russians in Europe over “security guarantees” that both sides knew were unachievable. Incredibly, as Russian heavy weaponry was flowing in to Ukraine’s border, field hospitals were being stood up, and blood supplies delivered, Biden’s intelligence and security officials claimed that they had no idea “what Russia’s intent was” and “whether President Putin has made the decision to invade.” Common sense should have told them that Putin’s men weren’t just going to sit around sipping borsch and nibble on “chicken kiev.”

This denial of the obvious reminds me of my struggles, as a former DIA intelligence officer for Russian Doctrine and Strategy, to convince officials in the Obama-Biden administration that Putin was serious about his goal to reverse the outcome of the Cold War. Despite that the intelligence record was unambiguous about Putin’s plans to fracture NATO and re-establish control of Russia’s former Soviet satellites, including Ukraine, the Washington bureaucrats came up with every possible excuse why Putin wouldn’t do what he clearly stated he would. Russia’s GDP is the size of Italy’s and Russia is a gas station with no economic ability to sustain large-scale military operations are the kinds of excuses I heard from the Obama-Biden bureaucrats.

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Second, Biden gave Putin a green light to attack Ukraine, by stating in January that a “minor incursion” would not provoke a major U.S. response and by ruling out in February the possibility of the United States deploying troops to help Ukraine fight the Russians. In May, as Putin’s forces were bombarding civilian targets and committing atrocities, Biden penned a stunning guest essay in the New York Times, “What America Will and Will Not Do in Ukraine,” telling Putin exactly what the U.S. will and will not do. Broadcasting to Putin that Americans are not willing to fight and wouldn’t send troops into the theater, even to rescue U.S. citizens, removed the one single fear factor that may have affected Putin’s decision calculus. 

If there’s anything that Moscow fears, it’s the full might of U.S. war-fighting force, which enjoys conventional superiority over the Russians. I believe that engaging in a war directly with Russia on behalf of Ukraine would have catastrophic consequences for our country and could even cause Putin to use nuclear weapons in Europe. But telling Putin upfront that he shouldn’t fear the U.S. military wrath emboldened him. Maintaining strategic ambiguity, keeping the adversary guessing about your next move is a fundamental principle of deterrence.

Third, Biden gave Putin an upper hand in limited nuclear warfare, which Putin has threatened throughout the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In March, Biden canceled the Sea-Launched Cruise Missile-Nuclear program — reversing the plans authorized Trump — for the development a low-yield nuclear warhead that could be launched from submarines. Low-yield nuclear weapons underpin Russia’s “escalate-to-de-escalate” doctrine, which envisions detonation of such a warhead to compel the adversary to surrender. Putin having this capability is the key reason why Washington fears war with Russia.

Fourth, Biden’s “green” energy and economic policies help finance Putin’s war machine. One million barrels of oil per day have been taken out of the global market as a result of various the misguided actions of Biden and our allies. This pushed energy prices upward, benefiting Russia, whose earnings from energy are skyrocketing. The unprecedented economic sanctions levied on Russia have not stopped Putin’s behavior and have boomeranged against the West. Europeans fear doomsday scenarios — come winter — with Germany already rationing energy usage, as Putin almost certainly will be cutting gas supplies to Europe to coerce the West to lift the sanctions. 

Our country is on the verge of the recession, suffering from the highest inflation in four decades. Germany’s potential economic collapse of which its economic minister Robert Habeck recently warned, will have spillover effects across Europe. Biden’s Soviet-style central planners are mulling over placing price caps on Russian oil to $40-60 a barrel from the current $100, but that would only drive global oil prices even higher, as there will be less oil on the market. JPMorgan is predicting “stratospheric” $380 a barrel, if Putin does cut Russia’s oil output.

Finally, Biden’s unlimited security assistance to Ukraine — with no oversight and without demanding that Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy set realistic war aims – is prolonging the war while depleting our own weapons stockpiles. The US already has authorized $54 billion in military assistance traditional foreign aid to Kyiv, with $8 billion spent, since the beginning of the Biden administration. There’s no amount of money or weaponry that would be sufficient for Ukraine to achieve victory, as defined by Zelenskyy, because Russia’s military is disproportionately more powerful than Ukraine’s. While the Ukrainian leader has displayed extraordinary talent to rally the support of the entire Western world, his stated war aims are unrealistic. Zelenskyy wants to push the Russians, who now control 20 percent of Ukraine, completely out of his land and has refused to negotiate with Putin. Putin, however, is highly likely prepared to keep going, regardless of how costly this highly-consequential fight for Moscow will be.

Moreover, Biden’s policies have helped Putin deepen ties with both U.S. adversaries like Iran, China, and North Korea – and our traditional allies like Saudi Arabia. Again, the Biden team revealed failure to understand the fundamental rule of strategy – not to push your enemies closer together and allies away.

Biden’s incompetent policy is harming the U.S. Meanwhile, Putin will conquer the rest of Ukraine, regardless of the cost.

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