BmoreNews.com
  • Latest News
  • Black Wall Street
  • Business
  • Stocks
  • Politics
  • Videos
  • Login
  • Register
  BREAKING
Black #Blockchain Brunch : @EBCrypto + Family Cash Machine x D.E.B.T. May 28, 2023
Black USA #Crypto News : Regulatory Woes & AI Developments May 28, 2023
Learn How To Do Business With The State of Maryland May 26, 2023
Como esta? Spanish at AGOGE Project on Belair Rd. May 26, 2023
Girls can do anything! AGOGE Project on Belair Rd. May 26, 2023
This week on BMORENews.com 5.26.23 May 27, 2023
USBE Magazine celebrates: White House announces intention to nominate General Charles C. Q. Brown to Joint Chiefs of Staff May 26, 2023
Howard University Welcomes Dana McPherson as Assistant Vice President of Marketing and Communications May 26, 2023
The Black Business Round Table: Allyssa Victory ESQ., Marcus Flowers Mission Democracy 5.25.23 May 26, 2023
MWMCA Memo: Registering Your Company in the MWBE Virtual Vendor Catalog is the First Step in Doing Business with UMMS May 26, 2023
Next
Prev
No Result
View All Result
Subscribe
Live
  • Home
  • News
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Editorial/Op-Ed
  • The Glover Report
  • Black Wall Street
  • Video
  • Polls
  • Questions
  • Forum
Live
No Result
View All Result
BmoreNews.com
Live
Home Editorial/Op-Ed

Opinion | Putin Thinks He’s Winning

Doni Glover by Doni Glover
July 18, 2022
in Editorial/Op-Ed
0 0
A A
0
ADVERTISEMENT

Everything is going according to plan.

That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.

That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.

But it’s what the Kremlin seems to believe. Over two decades I have closely followed Mr. Putin’s words, behavior and decisions, forming a comprehensive picture of the president’s calculations. Based on public rhetoric, policy moves and informal discussions with insiders, I have been able to work out — as far as is possible — the contours of the Kremlin’s current thinking. What is very clear is that in late May, the Kremlin came to the firm conclusion that it is winning this conflict in the long run. And Mr. Putin, in contrast to the early chaotic months, now has a clear plan.

Consisting of three main dimensions, the plan is a kind of strategic Russian doll. Each aspect fits within another, amounting to a grand scheme that goes far beyond Ukraine yet centers on it. It may sound extremely fanciful, and it certainly reveals how divorced from reality — to put it mildly — Mr. Putin is. But it’s important for the West, whose response has wavered between confrontation and acquiescence, to understand the full scope of Mr. Putin’s hopes as it continues to assess its role in defending Ukraine against Russian aggression.

The smallest, most pragmatic and achievable goal concerns Russia’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine. Having failed to advance much further into Ukrainian territory since the first few days of war, Russia promptly downsized its ambitions, relinquishing the idea of taking Kyiv. The current, more realistic goal appears to be control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions — which the Kremlin sees itself attaining in a matter of time, a view seemingly vindicated by Russian forces’ effective capture of the Luhansk region — and the land corridor that would secure access to Crimea.

For this goal, of minimal geopolitical weight for the Kremlin, Mr. Putin appears to believe that time is on his side. You can see why. Western military support has shown its limits, while Washington has signaled that it is not prepared to risk invoking Mr. Putin’s wrath by crossing any red lines. His earlier threats to resort to nuclear weapons seem to have been heeded: The West will not directly intervene, nor will it assist Ukraine to a point that could lead to Russian military defeat. Today, for all the protestations to the contrary, the conventional wisdom in the West is that Ukraine will not be able to win back the areas occupied by Russian troops. The Kremlin appears to believe that sooner or later the West will abandon that idea completely. Ukraine’s east would then effectively be under Russian control.

The next goal appears to be focused on forcing Kyiv to capitulate. This isn’t about the occupied territories; it’s about the future of Ukraine’s remaining territory — something that has far more geopolitical importance. On a practical level, capitulation would mean Kyiv accepting Russian demands that could be summarized as the “de-Ukrainianization” and “Russification” of the country. That would entail criminalizing the support of national heroes, renaming streets, rewriting history books and guaranteeing the Russian-speaking population a dominant position in education and culture. The aim, in short, would be to deprive Ukraine of the right to build its own nation. The government would be replaced, the elites purged and cooperation with the West voided.

This second goal sounds fantastical, of course. But for Mr. Putin it is also seemingly inevitable, though it may take longer to achieve. In one to two years, by which point the Kremlin expects Ukraine to be exhausted by the war, unable to function normally and profoundly demoralized, the conditions for capitulation will ripen. At that stage, the Kremlin’s calculation appears to be that the elite will split and a pro-peace opposition will gather to oust the Zelensky administration, seeking to put an end to the war. There’d be no need for Russia to capture Kyiv militarily; it would fall of its own accord. Mr. Putin apparently sees nothing that could prevent it.

There is much discussion over what is truly more important for Mr. Putin in his war: stopping NATO from expanding to Russia’s doorstep, or his imperial ambitions to enlarge Russia’s territory and annex at least part of Ukraine. But the two issues are intertwined. As Ukraine slid toward NATO and the conflict in the Donbas continued in a stalemate, Mr. Putin became ever more obsessed with the country. The land he believes historically belongs to Russia was being brought to heel by Russia’s worst enemy. As a response, Ukraine’s territory became a target alongside — but not instead of, as many think — the confrontation with NATO.

That brings us to Mr. Putin’s third strategic goal in the war against Ukraine, and the most geopolitically important of them all: building a new world order.

We are used to thinking that Mr. Putin sees the West as a hostile force that aims to destroy Russia. But I believe that for Mr. Putin there are two Wests: a bad one and a good one. The “bad West” is represented by the traditional political elites that currently rule Western countries: Mr. Putin appears to see them as narrow-minded slaves of their electorates who overlook genuine national interests and are incapable of strategic thinking. The “good West” consists of ordinary Europeans and Americans who, he believes, want to have normal relations with Russia, and businesses who are eager to profit from close cooperation with their Russian counterparts.

In Mr. Putin’s thinking, apparently, the bad West is declining and doomed while the good West is slowly challenging the status quo with a raft of nationally oriented leaders, such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, Marine Le Pen in France and even Donald Trump in the United States, ready to break with the old order and fashion a new one. Mr. Putin believes that the war against Ukraine and all its consequences, such as high inflation and soaring energy prices, will nourish the good West and help people rise up against the traditional political establishment.

Mr. Putin’s wager appears to be that the fundamental political shifts in Western countries will in time bring about a transformed, friendly West. Russia will then be able to return to all the security demands it set out in its December ultimatum to the United States and NATO. This may seem wishful to the point of impossible. But that doesn’t stop it from being what Mr. Putin expects to happen.

There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous. If the West seeks to avoid a catastrophic clash, it needs to truly understand what it’s really dealing with when it comes to Mr. Putin.

Tatiana Stanovaya (@Stanovaya) is a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She writes about Russian domestic politics and foreign policy and is the founder of R.Politik, a political analysis firm.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.

Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.



Source: NY Times

Buy JNews
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT

RELATED TOPICS

Gov. DeSantis just blocked the FIRST AP African American Studies course!

EDITORIAL: How to Make MBE Programs Work

Guest Editorial: Damon Hughes Tribute

ShareTweetShareShareSend
Doni Glover

Doni Glover

A journalist since 1994, he also founded DMGlobal Marketing & Public Relations. Glover has an extensive list of clients including corporations, non-profits, government agencies, politics, business owners, PR firms, and attorneys.

Related Articles

City Councilman Zeke Cohen
Editorial/Op-Ed

COMMENTARY: BG&E, Selling Underground Utilities in the City of Baltimore

by Staff Reporter
February 17, 2023
0
45

(BALTIMORE - February 17, 2023) - The debacle over the...

Read more
Baltimore Collegiate School for Boys. · 
Photo courtesy of Charlotte Elizabeth Photographer
Editorial/Op-Ed

GUEST EDITORIAL: Please Support Baltimore Collegiate School For Boys on Thursday, Feb. 16 at BCPS HQ

by Staff Reporter
February 13, 2023
0
23

By Derrick Burnett (BALTIMORE - February 13, 2023) - We're...

Read more
NABVETS, INC. INITIALLY THE “INTERESTED VETERANS OF THE CENTRAL CITY (IVOCC),” WAS ESTABLISHED AND INCORPORATED BY SEVEN VIETNAM COMBAT VETERANS IN MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN (1969). IN 1973, IT WAS REORGANIZED TO BECOME A MEMBERSHIP SERVICE ORGANIZATION WITH THE CHARGE TO ADDRESS ISSUES CONCERNING BLACK AND OTHER MINORITY VETERANS. IN 1998, NABVETS, INC. BECAME A NATIONAL VETERANS SERVICE ORGANIZATION (VSO), AND CERTIFIED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (VA) TO REPRESENT VETERANS FILING CLAIMS FOR THEIR BENEFITS.
Editorial/Op-Ed

BLACK HISTORY MONTH:  SEEKING TRUTH

by Staff Reporter
February 10, 2023
0
34

(BALTIMORE - February 10, 2023) - Simply put, history is...

Read more
Editorial/Op-Ed

Op-Ed: My Beef With Brandon and His Boss – Yitzy

by Staff Reporter
December 4, 2022
0
256

By Terrence Thrweatt (BALTIMORE - December 3, 2022) - In...

Read more
Congratulations to Everett Sesker , Sheriff-Elect of Anne Arundel County Everett Sesker for Sheriff
Editorial/Op-Ed

From the Desk of Carl Snowden: The “Black Wave” that changed the political complexion of Anne Arundel County politics.

by Staff Reporter
November 26, 2022
0
156

Judge Vickie Gipson garnered 103k votes, more than any Black...

Read more
Ashley Esposito
Editorial/Op-Ed

THANK YOU by Ashley Esposito, Baltimore City School Board

by Staff Reporter
November 14, 2022
0
39

(BALTIMORE - November 14, 2022) - I am so grateful...

Read more
Load More

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Recommended Stories

Mayor Shiela Dixon’s At-bat at Melo vs. Mario Softball Game ’09

July 26, 2022
0

South Carolina U.S. Senate Primary Runoff Election Results

July 18, 2022
0

Harlem Globetrotter Choo Smith on Danny Shadd’s Entrance to Barton College, NC

July 22, 2022
0
ADVERTISEMENT

Popular Stories

  • Damon Hughes, Black Business Champion

    Guest Editorial: Damon Hughes Tribute

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Power Couple Marc Clarke & Allison Seymour to be Recognized at Black Wall Street DMV, Feb. 3rd

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • HBO’s “The Wire” Actor Richard Burton to receive BMORENews Lifetime Achievement Award

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • BMORENews.com EXCLUSIVE: Former State Sen. Nathaniel J. McFadden, Part 1 of 2

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • A Real Westside Story: The Men of Matthew Henson #29 Still Connected After Half a Century

    0 shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
BmoreNews.com

BmoreNews.com is an online news outlet based in Baltimore, MD established in 2002. Yes, this is our 20th Anniversary year. We primarily cover news and developments from an African American/Black perspective.

LEARN MORE »

Recent Posts

  • Black #Blockchain Brunch : @EBCrypto + Family Cash Machine x D.E.B.T.
  • Black USA #Crypto News : Regulatory Woes & AI Developments
  • Learn How To Do Business With The State of Maryland

Sections

  • Black Wall Street
  • Business
  • Editorial/Op-Ed
  • News
  • Politics
  • The Glover Report
  • Uncategorized
  • Video

Newsletter

The most important world news and events of the day

Be the first to know latest important news & events directly to your inbox.

By signing up, I agree to our TOS and Privacy Policy.

  • About
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Advertise
  • Press Release
  • Contact

© 2022 BmoreNews.com - Created by Sawah Dev.

No Result
View All Result
  • Latest News
  • Black Wall Street
  • Business
  • Stocks
  • Politics
  • Videos

© 2022 BmoreNews.com - Created by Sawah Dev.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In