Gonzales Poll Reveals Baltimore Citizens Terribly Dissatisfied; Dixon leading mayoral race

(BALTIMORE – May 8, 2019) – Gonzales, a well-noted pollster in the Baltimore-DC metropolitan area, released its latest poll today. To say the least, Baltimoreans are highly displeased with the current direction of the city and schools are one of – if not the least favorite topic.

The following is a summary of the poll:

Background and Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated magna cum laude from the University of Baltimore with a degree in political science. His career in the field of public opinion research began in the mid-1980s as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research. During this time, Mr. Gonzales helped develop, craft and implement election surveys and exit polls for television and radio in the Baltimore-Washington D.C. metro area.

Patrick Gonzales has polled and analyzed well over a thousand elections in Maryland and across the country since that time. Furthermore, Mr. Gonzales and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects, crafting message development plans and generating strategy blueprints for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Over his 35 years conducting public opinion polls, Patrick Gonzales has been widely recognized by his peers for his ability to conduct unbiased surveys, and analyze the results in an impartial, evenhanded manner.

Mr. Gonzales frequently appears on radio and television in the Baltimore-D.C. region as a guest commentator.

This poll was conducted by Gonzales Research & Media Services from April 29th through May 1st, 2019. A total of 329 registered voters in Baltimore,
Maryland, who indicated that they are likely to vote in next year’s Democratic primary election for mayor, were queried by live telephone interviews, utilizing both landline and cell phone numbers. A cross-section of interviews was conducted throughout the City, reflecting primary election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), per accepted statistical standards, is a range of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points. If the entire population was surveyed, there is a 95% probability that the true numbers would fall within this range.

Synopsis

Rome burned…Nero fiddled. Baltimore, home to my alma mater and deep in the heart of the “Land of Pleasant Living,” is suffering. Two-thirds of its citizens believe the City is moving in the wrong direction; three-quarters are dissatisfied with the quality of education coming from its public schools; and nearly nine-out-of-ten residents are fed up with the efforts to reduce crime in Charm City.

Sixty-three percent of Baltimore voters thought that Mayor Catherine Pugh made the right decision by resigning from office in light of the controversy
surrounding her administration. The City’s now in a holding pattern until April 2020, when Democratic primary voters will exert their will and select

Whoever becomes Baltimore’s next elected mayor starts off with a formidable challenge.

Citywide, only 27% of voters feel that things in Baltimore are moving in the right direction, while a disquieting 63% say things in Baltimore are on the
wrong track. Disaffection spans all segments of the City. A substantial majority of Baltimore residents, not surprisingly, think things
today are worse than they were ten years ago. When asked if “things in Baltimore City are better than they were 10 years ago, worse than they were
10 years ago, or about the same as 10 years ago,” 57% of residents say things are worse, a meager 15% say better, and 28% say things are the same.

Sixty percent of voters under the age of fifty-five think things are worse today than they were 10 years ago.

Only 20% of voters are satisfied with public education in Baltimore – a measly 5% “very satisfied” – while 73% are dissatisfied with the quality of Baltimore public education.

Among voters under the age of fifty-five, 75% are dissatisfied with the quality of public education in Baltimore City.

Furthermore, just 12% of City voters are satisfied with attempts to reduce crime in Baltimore, while a devastating 83% are dissatisfied with attempts to reduce crime.

Black or white, young or old, male or female…all are exasperated with the attempts being made to reduce crime in Baltimore.

A hundred years ago Baltimore native H. L. Mencken declared, “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed…by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”

Today, the problems are all too real. No community can prosper when an overwhelming proportion of its members live with unease and frustration.

Mayor Catherine Pugh Resignation
(Phone interviews were completed last Wednesday, the day before Mayor Pugh resigned)
Among Baltimore City Democratic primary voters, 63% thought that Mayor Catherine Pugh should resign from office in light of the controversy surrounding her administration, while 23% said she should not resign, and 14% offered no opinion.

By gender, 57% of women felt that Pugh should’ve resigned, while 26% thought she shouldn’t; 74% of men believed Mayor Pugh should’ve resigned her position and 18% felt she shouldn’t have resigned.

Fifty-one percent of black voters felt that Mayor Pugh’s decision was the correct one, compared t0 85% of white voters who felt that way.

2020 Mayoral Democratic Primary Election
A year before the April 2020 primary, the contest to see who will be Baltimore’s next elected mayor is wide open.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, 23% say they would vote for Sheila Dixon, 19% say they would vote for Jack Young, 18% say they’d vote for Marilyn Mosby, 16% say they support Thiru Vignarajah, and 24% are undecided.

The results by gender, race, and age:
Mayoral Election Dixon Young Mosby Vignarajah
Men 23% 20% 13% 14%
Women 23% 18% 21% 17%
White 9% 17% 3% 35%
African-American 31% 20% 24% 6%
Under 55 19% 20% 21% 18%
55 and older 26% 18% 15% 14%

Former Mayor Dixon bests Acting Mayor Young among two key blocs – older voters (8-point margin) and African-Americans (11-point lead).

If State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby were to take a shot at becoming mayor, she might be able to energize the City’s younger voters, as a plurality of voters under the age of 55 already favor her over the other possible candidates included in this poll.

Thiru Vignarajah, at 35%, gets more than twice the share of the white vote compared to other candidates.

Direction of the City
Whoever wins the mayoral election next year will likely begin – from day one – leading a collection of dispirited constituents.

Citywide, only 27% of voters feel that things in Baltimore are moving in the right direction, while a distressing 63% say things in the city are on the wrong track, with 10% offering no opinion.

Dismay is across the board in Charm City: Direction of City Right Direction Wrong Track
Men 29% 64%
Women 26% 62%
White 23% 70%
African-American 29% 61%
Under 55 30% 60%
55 and older 25% 65%

Among no voter bloc is disillusionment about the ways things are going in Baltimore below 60 percent.

Life in the City Compared to 10 Years Ago
Not surprisingly, a substantial majority of Baltimore residents think things in the city today are worse than they were ten years ago. When asked if “things in Baltimore City are better than they were 10 years ago, worse than they were 10 years ago, or about the same as 10 years ago,” 57% say things are worse, a meager 15% say better, and 28% say things are the same.

Sixty percent of voters under the age of fifty-five think things are worse today than they were 10 years ago.

Baltimore City Public Education – Level of Satisfaction
Among likely voters in next year’s Democratic primary election, 20% are satisfied with the quality of public education in Baltimore City (5% “very satisfied” and 15% “somewhat satisfied”), while 73% are dissatisfied with the quality of public education in Baltimore (40% “very dissatisfied” and 33% “somewhat dissatisfied”), with 7% giving no opinion.

Among voters under the age of fifty-five, 75% are dissatisfied with the quality of public education in Baltimore City.

The results by gender, race, and age:
Public Education Satisfied Dissatisfied
Men 16% 75%
Women 22% 71%
White 18% 74%
African-American 20% 72%
Under 55 20% 75%
55 and older 19% 71%

Attempts to Reduce Crime in Baltimore – Level of Satisfaction
A mere 12% of city voters are satisfied with attempts to reduce crime in Baltimore (5% “very satisfied” and 7% “somewhat satisfied”), while a demoralizing 83% are dissatisfied with attempts to reduce crime (53% “very dissatisfied” and 30% “somewhat dissatisfied”), with 5% offering no response.

Black or white, young or old, male or female…all are exasperated with attempts to reduce crime in Baltimore.
Crime Satisfied Dissatisfied
Men 11% 83%
Women 12% 83%
White 11% 82%
African-American 12% 84%
Under 55 14% 81%
55 and older 9% 85%

According to DMVDaily.news publisher Hassan Giordano, “Despite the political naysayers and Dixon haters, who I’m sure will comment on this thread, Mayor Sheila Dixon currently leads the field of possible 2020 mayoral candidates according to a recent Gonzalez poll.”

He added, “23% of respondents ‘want their Mayor back’, while current Baltimore City Mayor Bernard Jack Young received 19% of the vote (if he decided to run for Mayor instead of Council President) and State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby received 18% of the vote while her SA opponent last year, Thiru Vignarajah, received 16% of the vote. However, the most glaring vote was the quarter of voters who remain undecided, which I believe will increase once the field of candidates grows or declines.”

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